Welcome to this week’s analysis on which altcoins are performing well and which ones are not. You can view the list here:
Bitcoin Update
Bitcoin is still holding up well after breaking out of this falling wedge. If the weekly close crosses above $86,000 then this is a good sign of a reversal to the upside:
The DXY Death Cross produced another signal last week. Each time this has happened, triple digit returns for Bitcoin followed every time in 12 months. The signal before this one occurred in late August 2024 and Bitcoin went from around $60K to over $100K.
I have mentioned previously that gold could potentially top out soon and when this has occurred previously, it led to a parabolic run in stocks and crypto. I have another chart that suggests this could trigger soon. This tracks the ratio between GLD and SPY which is how gold is performing against the S&P 500. When the 2-month ROC crosses above 30 and then closes below 30, it has marked the top in gold and then Bitcoin returns 2 years later have been substantial. Credit to Seth Golden where I first saw this indicator.
I have been looking at more breadth thrust indicators lately as they have a fairly decent track record in terms of 12-month forward returns. One in particular that triggered over a week ago is called a Zweig Volume Thrust which measures the percent of upside volume vs. total for stocks within a composite. This one looks at the percent of stocks in the NYSE that had a 92% upside day. When this signal triggers, the average 12-month forward returns for Bitcoin is 1055% and the median is 155%.
Solana Update
Solana is looking similar to Bitcoin where it’s now breaking above this falling wedge. If the weekly close can cross above 138 then is a good sign of a reversal to the upside.
Solana vs. Bitcoin looks like it’s in the process of potentially regaining this key support level. If it does, then I can see Solana having another major outperformance run against Bitcoin.
Dogecoin Update
Dogecoin is also rallying but still has a ways to go for a more meaningful reversal. I want to first see the weekly close cross above 0.168 and if that holds then a reclaim of 0.20. Then we should be in a good spot for more upside.
Sui Update
Sui is showing signs of potentially reversing. It broke through this trendline and I want see the weekly close above 2.35. If it can hold that level and then reclaim 2.85, we should be good for more upside.
Large Caps
For large caps, here’s the ones that stand out on a long term timeframe:
- XRP
- TRON
I think other coins like Solana, Sui or Dogecoin will have a better risk-to-reward at this point.
Pepe is also rallying but still not breaking out of its downtrend line. I want to see its weekly close above 0.000009 for a meaningful reversal to the upside.
Model Portfolio Update
The model portfolio is now down roughly 8% as the market continues sideways and is showing signs of a reversal:
I pointed out which coins are still in a decent buy zone so be sure to review those if you are still looking to allocate. However if you want to be more conservative, you can wait for a bullish confirmation in Bitcoin which for me is when the weekly close is above $93,000.
As I mentioned previously, I think we are showing some early signs of a reversal in the market for risk assets and we continue to have more bottom indicators trigger.
To see the detailed analysis on Mid Caps and Small Cap sector outperformers as well as the complete portfolio, sign up and become a pro today and gain an edge in the crypto market.
