Week of December 16, 2024

Altcoin Screener Free

Welcome to this week’s analysis on which altcoins are performing well and which ones are not. You can view the list here:

Altcoin Screener Sample List

Bitcoin Dominance Update

I am still seeing a lot of concerns that altcoins have not been doing well lately and I think this is mainly due to Bitcoin Dominance. For those new to this, it represents the percent of the crypto market cap that is in Bitcoin. As this goes higher, altcoins tend to underperform while Bitcoin outperforms. Almost a month ago, it broke below its multi-year trendline since late 2022 and altcoins started a nice rally. However in the past week or two, we had a bounce in Bitcoin Dominance resulting in most altcoins bleeding or doing nothing. I think we likely see Bitcoin Dominance doing a bearish retest of the 58% level and continue down. If this occurs, we should see altcoins starting to outperform again.

Solana Update

I have noticed a lot of chatter in the crypto community that Solana’s recent price performance has been lackluster. While this may be true in the short term, when we zoom out longer term, it is still showing exceptional outperformance. It is currently forming a bull flag which it has done multiple times in the past and has resulted in it going higher. This is just another breather for the next leg up.

Another chart I want to share is the SOL/ETH pair which measures Solana’s performance against Ethereum. Another narrative I keep seeing lately is that Ethereum is making a comeback and Solana may be dead. This chart says not so fast and is indicating since 2023 that Solana has been massively outperforming Ethereum. It recently had a major breakout of this rounded bottom and is currently doing a retest of previous resistance now as support. Once this goes higher from here, I expect Solana to start outpacing Ethereum once again. So to anyone holding Solana at the moment: have patience.

Dogecoin Update

Similar to Solana, I have been seeing comments around Dogecoin rally being over and a larger correction coming. As I said with Solana, I am also saying here: not so fast. It has been taking a breather and I think still has another leg up in the next 30 days or so. When we look at a chart I shared previously on Dogecoin & Positive MACD, we still potentially have our first top by the end of this month. We did have a dark blue bar from last week’s close which also happened last cycle with the first parabola so this can potentially close this week as light blue again and continue the rally.

The next chart we have is an update on Dogecoin 2 Week RSI and it still hasn’t reached this overextended zone between 89 to 97 to trigger the first top yet.

Large Caps

The Large Cap list is continuing to grow as more money has flowed recently into larger coins.

For large caps, here’s the ones that stand out on a long term timeframe:

  • Sui
  • Dogecoin
  • XRP
  • Stellar
  • Hedera

Sui has been showing exceptional outperformance lately even with most altcoins going sideways. In the last 365 days, it’s been outperforming Solana by 136% and in the last 180 days by 226%. In a previous newsletter, I shared how similar Sui’s price action was to Solana in 2020-21 and here is the latest version still following the pattern:

Dogecoin is still consolidating above $0.40 and remains in a strong uptrend and we think it will continue through the end of the year. It is outperforming Solana in the last 365 days by 38% and by 101% in the last 180 days. The buy zone is closing for this.

The remaining coins are XRP, Stellar and Hedera. These are multi-cycle coins that have underperformed for most of this current cycle but have started showing recent outperformance. I am cautious because these types of coins tend to not perform well for the remainder of the cycle vs. newer coins that have shown much higher recent outperformance for an extended period of time. My stance on them will change if they manage to make new all-time highs and continue to show bullish momentum. However, I still think the gains on these will be limited and there will be better opportunities elsewhere.

Here’s the ones that stand out on a short term timeframe:

  • Hedera
  • Stellar
  • XRP
  • Chainlink

XRP, Stellar and Hedera make the short term list also but again I’m cautious on these for the reasons mentioned earlier.

My analysis on Stellar still remains. With this most recent monthly close, it was unable to close above 0.54 so I would still wait for a pullback. You could look for a buy between 0.19 and 0.28 if there is a pullback. If the monthly breaks above 0.54 then you could buy the retest. I will mention again that legacy coins like Stellar, XRP and Hedera have been underperforming for most of this cycle up until now so they do not present a high chance of exceptional performance. For this reason, we do not plan on adding legacy coins like this to the model portfolio so pursue at your own risk.

Here’s also the XRP chart for comparison and you can see that it has a very similar pattern to Stellar where it has been underperforming for most of this cycle and had a recent surge in price. We have to see how this plays out but the Altcoin Screener algorithm tends to find that newer coins (ones created since 2022) will outperform legacy coins (ones created before 2022). If the monthly can close above 1.98 for XRP than this could indicate a new uptrend is forming otherwise it is still in the same range it’s been in since 2018.

Model Portfolio Update

The model portfolio continues to do well and is up roughly 70%.

We identified some good “buy the dip” opportunities in some of the model portfolio positions.

To see the complete portfolio, sign up and become a pro today and gain an edge in the crypto market.

Not financial advice. Please consult a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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