Welcome to this week’s analysis on which altcoins are performing well and which ones are not. You can view the list here:
Bitcoin Dominance and Alt Season
I see many people asking “When alt season?”. For those of you unfamiliar with this term and there doesn’t seem to be a set definition but I’ll share with you my version. It is simply when Bitcoin Dominance has peaked and is dropping for a multi-month period which typically occurs in the last year of the 4-year cycle. For the first 3 years of the 4-year cycle, Bitcoin tends to be the strongest in terms of an increasing market cap as a share of the overall crypto market. As Bitcoin holders realize substantial gains, they tend to rotate their Bitcoin into altcoins and this causes altcoins in general to outperform Bitcoin. The chart below shows the Crypto Market Cap (excluding the top 10) vs. Bitcoin Dominance. You can see that every time Bitcoin Dominance peaks, it is followed by a surge in the altcoin market. We seem to be at the cusp of making that transition as Bitcoin Dominance has broken below this recent trendline. If Bitcoin Dominance continues lower the rest of the month then we should see altcoin season unfold into next year.

Large Caps
The Large Cap list has grown quite a bit as more money has flowed recently into larger coins.
For large caps, here’s the ones that stand out on a long term timeframe:
- Dogecoin
- Stellar
- XRP
Dogecoin is still consolidating above $0.40 and remains in a strong uptrend and we think it will continue through the end of the year. It is outperforming Solana in the last 365 days by 31% and by 85% in the last 180 days. The buy zone is closing for this.
Stellar has made the list again and still is in a decent uptrend for now. It is outperforming Solana in the last 365 days by 14% and in the last 180 days, it’s outperforming Solana by 246%. It is still not in a very good buy zone so I would recommend waiting for a pullback if interested.
We have XRP as a new addition to the list and has a similar chart and trend to Stellar. It is underperforming Solana in the last 365 days by 18% but is outperforming Solana in the last 180 days by 158%. Similar to Stellar, it is not in a good buy zone at the moment so wait for a pullback if interested.
Here’s the ones that stand out on a short term timeframe:
- Stellar
- XRP
- Dogecoin
Stellar is also doing very well in the short term outperforming Solana in the last 30 days by 303% and in the last 90 days by 216%. This is definitely one to keep an eye out as an emerging Large Cap. Dogecoin made it to the list again this week and is still performing well in the short term by outperforming Solana by 85% in the last 30 days and by 139% in the last 90 days. Finally, we have XRP which is showing decent Solana outperformance in the last 30 days by 169% and in the last 90 days by 91%. None of these are unfortunately in a good buy zone and I would advise trying to wait for a pullback if interested in getting a position.
My analysis on Stellar still remains. With this most recent monthly close, it was unable to close above 0.54 so I would still wait for a pullback. You could look for a buy between 0.19 and 0.28 if there is a pullback. If the monthly breaks above 0.54 then you could buy the retest. However another thing to keep in mind is that some of these legacy coins like Stellar and XRP have been underperforming for most of this cycle up until now so they do not present a high chance of exceptional performance. For this reason, we do not plan on adding legacy coins like this to the model portfolio so pursue at your own risk.

Here’s also the XRP chart for comparison and you can see that it has a very similar pattern to Stellar where it has been underperforming for most of this cycle and had a recent surge in price. We have to see how this plays out but the Altcoin Screener algorithm tends to find that newer coins (ones created since 2022) will outperform legacy coins (ones created before 2022). If the monthly can close above 1.98 for XRP than this could indicate a new uptrend is forming otherwise it is still in the same range it’s been in since 2018.

Model Portfolio Update
The model portfolio continues to do well and is up 70% now.

We identified some good “buy the dip” opportunities in some of the model portfolio positions.
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Not financial advice. Please consult a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
