Welcome to this week’s analysis on which altcoins are performing well and which ones are not. You can view the list here:
Is the 2015-17 Cycle Repeating?
There has been a lot of frustration lately with altcoins and understandably so. I’ve been doing more digging in past cycle data and I wanted to share my findings that might help explain the price action we’ve been seeing.
When we compare Bitcoin’s price action so far this cycle to previous cycles, it matches more closely with the 2015-17 cycle:
The first thing you notice is that this has a very gradual rise in price with no major sharp drops until we reach the cycle top. The corrections range between 20-30% and also aligns with what we have seen so far this cycle.
Next, let’s take a look at Altcoin Dominance during this time period. This takes the Crypto Market Cap and subtracts Bitcoin Market Cap then divides this by the Crypto Market Cap. Since altcoins were in their infancy at this time, I think this is a better proxy of the altcoin market and you’ll see why as we get further into the data.
Altcoins had just been introduced this cycle and at the lows, it only made up 1% of the crypto market cap at the time then grew to over 65-70%. Here’s the major milestones that occurred:
- November 2015 – altcoins bottom
- July 2016 – altcoins make their first top
- March 2017 – altcoins make a new all-time high and enter their parabolic phase
- January 2018 – altcoins reach their cycle top
Back then there were far less altcoins than there are today. The one that stood out and ended up capturing the most share of the crypto market at the time was Ethereum. At the lows, it consisted of 1% of the crypto market and then skyrocketed to 67% of the crypto market. Let’s take a look at Ethereum Dominance which takes the Ethereum Market Cap and divides it by the Crypto Market Cap and its major milestones during this cycle:
- October 2015 – ETH first bottom
- March 2016 – ETH first top
- December 2016 – ETH second bottom
- March 2017 – ETH makes a new all-time and goes parabolic
- June 2017 – ETH dominance peaks. BTC makes its first cycle top.
Next, let’s take a look at XRP which was another top performing altcoin at the time:
- November 2015 – XRP first bottom
- January 2017 – XRP second bottom
- March 2017 – XRP makes a new all-time and goes parabolic
- January 2018 – XRP cycle top
So what’s interesting about XRP is that before March 2017, it did not look like a top performing altcoin at all. It was sideways for the majority of this cycle and from XRP’s first bottom until it made a new ATH, it took over 500 days. Sound familiar when you think about what’s been happening this cycle for altcoins? Seems like we have been going sideways forever with no relief for altcoins. Based on this data from ETH and XRP from 2015-17 which represented a large portion of the altcoin market, the similarities are uncanny with the 2023-25 cycle. Here’s the milestones from ETH and XRP 2015-17 applied to this cycle’s OTHERS chart (altcoin market cap excluding the top 10):
I know previously I said that altcoins would likely start turning around in February but based on these new findings and the similarities to 2015-17 cycle, I am open to the idea that this might get pushed out to late March 2025. This then means we could see a Bitcoin first top in June 2025 instead of the more consensus view on X which has been calling for March 2025. If this occurs, we are pretty much seeing the 2015-17 cycle playing out once again. The 2015-17 cycle had more long sideways periods which is also characteristic of this 2023-25 cycle.
Something else I find interesting is that the market consensus or majority historically tends to be incorrect. When I asked Grok on X what the majority thought when the Bitcoin first top would be and the answer is Q1 of this year. So this seems like more evidence that this plays out like the 2015-17 cycle where the Bitcoin first top is in June 2025 (which the majority is not expecting) and altcoins will have a major turnaround in March 2025.
Macro Update
For those that may have missed my post on X, I wanted to share a chart I put together based on the latest US manufacturing ISM data that got released. This compares Bitcoin price vs. Gold and the ISM.
The ISM represents a real-time gauge of the US economy. Whenever the ISM is below 50, the economy is contracting and whenever it is above 50, it’s expanding. For the last 2 years, the ISM was below 50 and the economy was in slowdown. This tends to signal to the market to be “risk off” and buy gold pushing the price of gold higher. This most recent release of the ISM data has crossed above 50. This is very bullish for risk assets especially for Bitcoin and altcoins over the next few months. You can see historically that when ISM crosses above 50, this leads to Bitcoin going parabolic and a top or sideways period for Gold. If history repeats, we should start to see this play out in the next few months.
Bitcoin Update
Not much to update here once again. Bitcoin is still in this same range between 90-100k. Last newsletter Bitcoin was at 95k and now it’s at 97k. It still has not moved much. We have to continue waiting for this range to resolve. I am still sticking with my original scenarios that it could still dip to 85k or break to the upside to 120-130k.
Bitcoin Dominance Update
The scenario I’ve been saying for weeks has finally played out. Bitcoin Dominance went higher and so far is showing a huge rejection. This most recent weekly close was under 62% which is good news so far. This might finally be the top we have been looking for and we will see a major shift from Bitcoin strength to altcoin strength. Time will tell over the course of this month. If Bitcoin Dominance continues to drop from here and eventually breaks below 55%, this will be the confirmation of the alt season we have all been waiting for.
As I’ve shared in the last couple newsletters, we have seen this type of behavior in previous cycles where it revisits the highs before plummeting. Upon further examination, there are two tops with Bitcoin Dominance that occurred in late 2020 and early 2021 that appears to also be playing out in a similar way to late 2024 and early 2025.
I do want to point out that I’ve seen other scenarios where Bitcoin Dominance could go as high as 72% again. I am not ruling it out but I am finding that highly unlikely given the much larger crypto market cap we have today. Also the fact that most altcoins have retraced a significant amount (70-80%), I am finding that less likely to happen but still possible. When I look back at Bitcoin Dominance from 2016-17, I see a lower high that formed and I am leaning more towards this scenario occurring:
Solana Update
Similar to Bitcoin, this has been stuck in a range so we have to be patient and wait for it to break out to the upside. It’s now above $200 again.
SOL/ETH trend is still in place and going higher. The reason I share this chart over and over is to highlight that Solana is a better outperformer than ETH. So many still ask me if ETH is a good buy and I say “Solana is outperforming ETH so I would rather own Solana”:
SOL/BTC still in this range but has bounced off the bottom. Once this breaks above, we will really start to see Solana outperform.
Dogecoin Update
Dogecoin recently hit this golden pocket area which suggests the drawdown may be done. There is still a chance it goes to the lower level of this zone around 0.17 so just be prepared in case it does. Otherwise it might just go sideways here for a bit before continuing the uptrend:
Large Caps
For large caps, here’s the ones that stand out on a long term timeframe:
- XRP
- Dogecoin
- Sui
Sui has been holding up very well and is using 3.19 as support. This is still a decent buy level if you want to add more here.
The remaining coins are XRP which as I mentioned in previous newsletters, I would not advise buying.
Here’s the ones that stand out on a short term timeframe:
- XRP
- TRON
I think other coins like Sui or Dogecoin will have a better risk-to-reward at this point.
Pepe still bouncing in this range. These liquidation events can throw a wrench into things but as long as the overall macro environment is still bullish, this is a “buy the dip” scenario. I would still add to Pepe at these levels:
Model Portfolio Update
The model portfolio is now up over 15% even with this major liquidation event:
To see the detailed analysis on Mid Caps and Small Caps as well as the complete portfolio, sign up and become a pro today and gain an edge in the crypto market.
Not financial advice. Please consult a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
