Welcome to this week’s analysis on which altcoins are performing well and which ones are not. You can view the list here:
Bitcoin Update
Not much to update here once again. Bitcoin is still in this same range between 90-100k. Last newsletter Bitcoin was at 95k and now it’s at 96k. It still has not moved much. We have to continue waiting for this range to resolve. I am still sticking with my original scenarios that it could still dip to 85k or break to the upside to 120-130k.
Bitcoin Dominance Update
The scenario I’ve been saying for weeks has finally played out. Bitcoin Dominance went higher and so far is showing a huge rejection. After that major rejection candle over a week ago, we now finally have a red weekly candle close. So far so good. Time will tell over the course of this month. If Bitcoin Dominance continues to drop from here and eventually breaks below 55%, this will be the confirmation of the alt season we have all been waiting for.
Many are still wondering when is this altcoin pivot really going to happen and what are the signs to look for? I recognize that watching Bitcoin Dominance can be like watching paint dry. So I took a closer look at the past couple cycles on what else to look for besides Bitcoin Dominance dropping hard.
In the 2015-17 cycle, I mentioned that the altcoin pivot occurred in March 2017 and so much data up until now for this 2023-25 cycle is playing out in a very similar way. One possible scenario and what I’m leaning toward is that after this sideways period is over with a likely break to the upside, Bitcoin will go to 120-130k then have another 20-30% correction. Before everyone freaks out about more downside, something very unexpected happens: altcoins pump while Bitcoin drops. This is what happened in March 2017. Altcoins do have a correction later a couple weeks after Bitcoin has a local top (that is more or less matching the percentage drop with Bitcoin, not a slaughter of 80% like we’ve been seeing the past couple years) but they end up making a new high and a much higher low.
The other scenario we could see is what happened in the 2019-21 cycle: altcoins are still moving closely with Bitcoin, Bitcoin pushes higher above the sideways range and with the next correction, they more or less match their percentage drop with Bitcoin while Bitcoin Dominance drops hard in parallel with the correction.
Solana Update
Similar to Bitcoin, this has been stuck in a range so we have to be patient and wait for it to break out to the upside. It’s now below $200 again. It looks like it could go to 160-175. I would continue to add at these levels.
Dogecoin Update
I added some trendlines here for Doge and it looks like it’s forming a bull flag. Just have to keep being patient here for the next leg higher:
Large Caps
For large caps, here’s the ones that stand out on a long term timeframe:
- XRP
- Dogecoin
- Stellar
- Sui
Sui has been holding up very well and is using 3.19 as support. This is still a decent buy level if you want to add more here.
The remaining coins are XRP and Stellar which as I mentioned in previous newsletters, I would not advise buying.
Here’s the ones that stand out on a short term timeframe:
- XRP
- Stellar
- Chainlink
I think other coins like Sui or Dogecoin will have a better risk-to-reward at this point.
Pepe still bouncing in this range. I would continue to add at these levels while you can:
Model Portfolio Update
The model portfolio is now up over 15% even with this major liquidation event:
To see the detailed analysis on Mid Caps and Small Caps as well as the complete portfolio, sign up and become a pro today and gain an edge in the crypto market.
Not financial advice. Please consult a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
