Welcome to this week’s analysis on which altcoins are performing well and which ones are not. You can view the list here:
Macro Update
There’s a lot more evidence coming out that suggests manufacturing and reindustrialization is about to surge once again in the US. This will result in the US PMI going higher which we covered in newsletters earlier this year. Why do we care about the US PMI? Well as I’ve covered before this is our gauge of how well the business cycle is performing and the most sensitive sector to the business cycle is manufacturing. When this is doing well, most of the economy benefits because you have higher demand for orders leading to more manufacturing production. This leads to better earnings for companies and more spending for the consumer. This eventually leads to the investor having more money available to allocate to more risky investments. The types of investments that do well in a PMI expansion period include things like commodities, Russell 2000 stocks and altcoins.
I encourage everyone to watch this video or at least get a summary through ChatGPT on what could be leading to the PMI going higher:
Bitcoin Update
This is more or less the same update as last week where Bitcoin looks like it will range here for a bit or push higher to $140-$150k. There will be more liquidity flowing into altcoins which we have seen so far.
As I covered in my recent X post https://x.com/altcoin_screenr/status/1948339762319790404 I developed this indicator called the “Bitcoin Standardized Mayer Multiple” which looks at the Bitcoin Mayer Multiple and applies a standardized term of 4 years so that it produces more consistent highs when a major local high is reached.
What this chart tells us is that after the mid-cycle top (1) is reached, we have a prolonged correction then a recovery then we reach a cycle top zone (2). The mid-cycle tops occurred in June 2019 and March 2024 within a month of this signal and the cycle top zone triggered December 2017, Jan 2021 and now July 2025. In previous instances of a cycle top zone signal, the cycle top came in within a 1-5 month window. We will keep monitoring other top data to see if anything else triggers.
Solana Update
Solana still holding above MA200 and hit the $200 target as mentioned from last week. We might have a slight pullback to around 170 otherwise this could push higher to $250.
Solana vs. Bitcoin is testing MA200 and once it breaks above here, this will confirm a new uptrend. Very positive development for altcoins if this is the case.
Dogecoin Update
Dogecoin had the pullback as anticipated. I expect it to range or rebound from here and then test the 0.29-0.30 level.
Sui Update
Sui is showing early signs of leadership as it got to 4.40 in the past week, less than 20% from its all-time high. There’s potentially another pullback to around $4 and then all-time highs.
It’s been awhile since we looked at this chart comparing previous cycles and their Layer 1 leaders. We had a decoupling and now it seems Sui is following this long sideways period and preparing for the next leg up. I believe this decoupling was caused by this prolonged contraction in PMI. Now with the strong chance of PMI expansion coming in the next month or two, we should start to see the gap close.
Large Caps
For large caps, here’s the ones that stand out on a long term timeframe:
- Sui
- Hyperliquid
- XRP
- Stellar
Pepe is following Dogecoin at the moment with a pullback. I’m expecting sideways and a rebound from here.
Model Portfolio Update
The open positions is showing a positive return of roughly 43%:
The overall portfolio performance considering closed positions is roughly a 19% positive return:
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