Welcome to this week’s analysis on which altcoins are performing well and which ones are not. You can view the list here:
Macro Update
The ISM released their data on July 1 and the US manufacturing PMI improved from 48.5 to 49 albeit still in contraction territory. ISM new orders decreased from 47.6 to 46.4. What this tells us is that while output is stabilizing, firms are likely to remain cautious on hiring and investment. This leads us to what we should look out for as a catalyst to push the PMI higher into a sustainable expansion period where small caps (i.e., altcoins) outperform large caps (i.e., Bitcoin). I identified the main catalysts and the expected timing along with probabilities.
Some good news is that the Big Beautiful Bill has already passed in Congress so we can mark that as complete. I think this will be the first domino to fall leading to these other bullish catalysts. The government is fairly consistent in turning to spending as a way to stimulate the economy. What this suggests is that performance for Q3 will be modest but then Q4 will be exceptional so let’s see how it plays out.
Bitcoin Update
Very similar update to last week as we wait for Bitcoin to push higher. The S&P 500 is leading the way with making new all-time highs and Bitcoin is coming next.
Bitcoin broke above this mini bull flag and is re-testing as support. This is a good sign that’s about to go a lot higher.
Solana Update
Solana is still following Bitcoin and broke above its bull flag pattern and set to go higher.
Solana vs. Bitcoin still forming a potential double bottom and going higher.
Dogecoin Update
Dogecoin weekly closed above 0.168 as it appears to be forming a bottom. This is probably the last chance to buy before going a lot higher.
Sui Update
Similar to other charts, Sui is also forming a potential bull flag. It hasn’t broken above it yet but if it does, it should go a lot higher.
Large Caps
For large caps, here’s the ones that stand out on a long term timeframe:
- XRP
- Sui
- Hyperliquid
I think you see the pattern by now but here’s Pepe forming a potential bull flag and set to go higher.
Sector Outperformer Analysis
Since we are on the brink of a major breakout for Bitcoin, I thought it would be good to do another sector outperformer analysis as a checkpoint to cut loose any underperformers you might still be holding onto in favor of the outperformers. The complete file for the various sectors is available for pro members.
For those of you looking at this for the first time, I focus on the top performers outperforming Bitcoin in each sector which have positive Bitcoin outperformance on at least a short term or long term timeframe. I give more weight to the performance from 2023 onward since that is the start of this most recent bull cycle. It is very rare for an altcoin to continue to outperform through multiple cycles so this is why I limit the lookback period. The bear market does a reset of everything to fair value and then only the ones that are deemed valuable by the market will rise with the new cycle.
Here’s an example below of how to read these performance matrices. We read from left to right. So in this example below, Sui outperforms Solana. You can keep repeating this with every combination and then the one that outperforms a majority of the coins in that category will be the top performer. So after doing this analysis for Large Cap Layer 1s, the ones that stand out are Solana and Sui which we already have in the model portfolio. Good to know they are still performing well!
Model Portfolio Update
I have a new tracker now for the model portfolio. Because I can’t export the history of the portfolio performance over time from the previous tool, we will just have to start from today and onward. Now that this is a tool I have full control over, I can better customize any desired views as needed. The open positions are showing a return of 7%. We shifted a couple positions in favor of some new outperformers.
I pointed out which coins are still in a decent buy zone so be sure to review those if you are still looking to allocate. However I think the buy zone is closing shortly now that Bitcoin is over $100,000. Altcoins will soon catch up.
To see the detailed analysis on Mid Caps and Small Cap sector outperformers as well as the complete portfolio, sign up and become a pro today and gain an edge in the crypto market.