Welcome to this week’s analysis on which altcoins are performing well and which ones are not. You can view the list here:
Bitcoin Update
Bitcoin is experiencing a relief rally. It’s possible that we go sideways here for the next few weeks but as I mentioned in the last newsletter, several bottom indicators have already triggered such as:
- DXY 3-Day Percent Change
- DXY 1-Week % Change Z-Scores
- Global M2 projecting Bitcoin bottom by early April
I also have another indicator that has suggested the bottom is in for altcoins. As a follow-up from my post on X, this measures the % decline in altcoin market cap over a 2-week period and assigns a z-score (i.e., the number of standard deviations from the mean). It just triggered a -2 from this most recent 2-week close. The other times this happened:
- March 2020 (altcoin market cap surged 2600%)
- May 2021 (altcoin market cap surged 130%)
- August 2024 (altcoin market cap surged 90%)
- March 2025 (pending)
Another indicator that has triggered a potential bottom measures when the S&P 500 is 10% below its 52-week highs and the put/call ratio crosses above 0.93. This has occurred several times as a fairly reliable indicator after 2009. Since the stock market and crypto are closely correlated, this suggests a bottom for crypto too.
Credit to Daily ChartBook where I first saw this indicator.
Another indicator that has triggered a potential bottom is when the NYSE Advancers 10-week moving average crosses below 820 and then forms a bottom and reverses to the upside. This occurred in the following situations:
- September 2015
- January 2016
- December 2018
- March 2020
- October 2022
- March 2025
Similar to the previous bottom indicator, S&P 500 and crypto are closely correlated so this also suggests crypto has bottomed as well.
Credit to Seth Golden where I first saw this indicator.
This next indicator has triggered that potentially more downside is coming but it is still above the bear market threshold which is 3.5% below the first candle close below SMA200. If the Nasdaq reclaims SMA200 then I think this becomes invalidated. Plus when compared to several other bottom indicators that have triggered, I think those outweigh one that could signal more downside.
Credit to Jason Goepfert where I first saw this indicator.
Solana Update
Solana seems to be forming a falling wedge which is a bulling pattern. If it can break to the upside, then it should continue higher. I would still consider this a buying opportunity.
Solana vs. Bitcoin is still holding up on a key support level:
Dogecoin Update
Price went lower and is slightly below this bull flag but if all these recent bottom indicators follow through then I still see more upside coming for Dogecoin.
Sui Update
Sui also went lower but still holding around this 2.30 level. If it breaks below this level, the next level is 1.80.
Large Caps
For large caps, here’s the ones that stand out on a long term timeframe:
- XRP
- Cardano
- Dogecoin
I think other coins like Solana, Sui or Dogecoin will have a better risk-to-reward at this point.
Pepe has fallen to August 2024 lows but I think it will still go higher as it’s been following the rest of the market especially Bitcoin. I would continue to add at these levels while you can:
Model Portfolio Update
The model portfolio is now down roughly 9% as the market continues sideways:
I pointed out which coins are still in a decent buy zone so be sure to review those if you are still looking to allocate. Otherwise, we sit tight and let the cycle play out monitoring for the cycle top data to trigger.
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