Welcome to this week’s analysis on which altcoins are performing well and which ones are not. You can view the list here:
Bitcoin Update
Bitcoin is still having a short term rally. In order to have more confirmation of a reversal, it needs to break out of this trendline. It’s possible that we go sideways here for the next few weeks but based on several bottom indicators, I think we are set to go higher.
Some bottom indicators are for the S&P 500 but they can also be applied to Bitcoin. I overlaid Bitcoin to these for a more complete picture of what is potentially coming with the upside. For the DXY 3-Day Percent Change, when this signal triggered, Bitcoin was up by at least 125% a year later.
For DXY 1-Week % Change Z-Scores, returns 1 year later were at least 125%:
For the S&P 500 6-week pattern, Bitcoin returns 1 year later:
- Average = 292%
- Median = 160%
For the S&P 500 10% corrections & Put/Call Ratio > 0.93, Bitcoin returns 1 year later:
- Average = 205%
- Median = 110%
For the S&P 500 vs. NYSE Advancers 10-Week Moving Average, Bitcoin returns 1 year later:
- Average = 435%
- Median = 150%
This next indicator has triggered that potentially more downside is coming but it is still above the bear market threshold which is 3.5% below the first candle close below SMA200. If the Nasdaq reclaims SMA200 then I think this becomes invalidated. Plus when compared to several other bottom indicators that have triggered, I think those outweigh one that could signal more downside.
Another chart that we haven’t looked at in awhile is OTHERS Dominance 2-Week Z-Scores and we have been going sideways in this lower zone now for nearly 2 months. This is a strong chance that the bottom is in since it hasn’t gone any lower. Once this goes higher, mid cap and small cap altcoins should start outperforming.
Solana Update
Solana seems to be breaking out of this falling wedge pattern which suggests the bottom could be in:
Solana vs. Bitcoin is still holding up on a key support level:
Dogecoin Update
Price seems to have reclaimed this bull flag region and with other Large Caps also showing bullish patterns, I expect more upside to come for Dogecoin.
Sui Update
Sui is also looking better versus last week. I want to see it break above this trendline for more confirmation of a reversal.
Large Caps
For large caps, here’s the ones that stand out on a long term timeframe:
- XRP
- Cardano
- TRON
I think other coins like Solana, Sui or Dogecoin will have a better risk-to-reward at this point.
Pepe is rallying with the rest of the market. I want to see this break above this trendline for confirmation of a reversal but otherwise so far so good.
Model Portfolio Update
The model portfolio is now down roughly 5% as the market continues sideways and is showing signs of a reversal:
I pointed out which coins are still in a decent buy zone so be sure to review those if you are still looking to allocate. Otherwise, we sit tight and let the cycle play out monitoring for the cycle top data to trigger.
We added another coin to the model portfolio that is showing impressive outperformance recently even with this recent downturn.
To see the detailed analysis on Mid Caps and Small Cap sector outperformers as well as the complete portfolio, sign up and become a pro today and gain an edge in the crypto market.
