Welcome to this week’s analysis on which altcoins are performing well and which ones are not. You can view the list here:
I hope you all managed okay while I was out. A lot changed with the markets! I did have something unexpected come up personally so I will be traveling once again and will return to publish the May 26 newsletter. After that we should return to a weekly newsletter cadence assuming nothing else comes up.
Bitcoin Update
It appears that Bitcoin is continuing this breakout from the falling wedge and is soon going to make new all-time highs. I would not buy any more at these levels and instead wait for the next bottom indicator to trigger. There may be one more dip opportunity in the next few months before we reach a cycle top. We will have to monitor the data and see if that presents itself.
Since the last newsletter, we had more bottom indicators trigger. I covered a few through posts on X but I will also recap here as well as some additional ones for those that may have missed them. I am building out a database of these and will continue to develop them to provide the most data-driven insights possible. Moving forward, I will be recommending only to buy when one of these indicators triggers and not relying on dollar cost averaging anymore. Data shows that you are more likely to be more profitable following a bottom indicator instead.
On April 24, we got a Zweig Breadth Thrust on the S&P 500. This is a rare signal that has produced positive returns every time 12 months later since 2010 for S&P 500:
- Mean: 21%
- Median: 21%
For Bitcoin, this produced positive returns 12 months later 91% of the time:
- Mean: 2399%
- Median: 146%
On the same day, we also got a Whaley Breadth Thrust for the Nasdaq. This looks at the percent of net advancing stocks plotted against the 10-day EMA and if the percentage went from -15% or less to 20% or higher within a 10-day trading period. Data on returns since 2011 below. For the Nasdaq, this has been positive 100% of the time and produced the following 12 month forward returns:
- Mean: 28%
- Median: 25%
For Bitcoin, it’s been positive 80% of the time and produced the following 12 month forward returns:
- Mean: 133%
- Median: 137%
The next bottom indicator I covered was S&P 500 4% or Higher Return Days. It originally triggered April 9 but I didn’t create the indicator until April 25. Since 2011, every signal has been positive and produced impressive 12-month forward returns.
S&P 500
- Mean: 35%
- Median: 31%
Bitcoin
- Mean: 455%
- Median: 355%
This next indicator, NYSE Advancers 10-Week Breadth Thrust, I had covered in previous X posts but I have refined it a bit and made the format more consistent with more recent charts where I plot the signal dates along with the 12-month forward returns.
On April 25, we got a Whaley Breadth Thrust on the S&P 500. This looks at the percent of net advancing stocks plotted against the 10-day EMA and if the percentage went from -10% or less to 30% or higher within a 10-day period. Every signal has been positive and data on 12-month forward returns since 2012 below.
S&P 500
- Mean: 22%
- Median: 20%
Bitcoin
- Mean: 358%
- Median: 151%
On May 2, we had two breadth thrusts trigger:
- Nasdaq – Percent of Stocks above 50-Day Moving Average Breadth Thrust
- S&P 500 – Percent of Stocks above 200-Day Moving Average Breadth Thrust
The first one looks at the percent of Nasdaq stocks above their 50-day moving average that moved from 15% or less to 55% or higher within a 10-day trading period. Data since 2011 below.
Positive signal 100% of the time. 12 month forward returns for Nasdaq:
- Mean: 28%
- Median: 26%
Positive signal 75% of the time. 12 month forward returns for Bitcoin:
- Mean: 162%
- Median: 134%
The second one looks at the percent of S&P 500 stocks above their 200-day moving average that moved from 30% or less to 40% or higher within a 10-day trading period. A positive signal 100% of the time for both S&P 500 and Bitcoin. 12-month forward returns since 2010 below.
S&P 500
- Mean: 21%
- Median: 22%
Bitcoin
- Mean: 18,692%
- Median: 254%
Finally, here’s the recap of all the buy signals that triggered since March:
OTHERS Dominance 2-Week Z-Scores
It’s been awhile since we looked at this chart since it’s mostly been sideways. However, it seems like we are showing signs of potential trend reversal to the upside with now the z-scores going higher out of the bottom zone. If this continues higher, we should see more outperformance from altcoins.
Altcoin Market Cap vs. 2-Week % Change Z-Scores
I covered this when it fired the signal in mid-March and wanted to provide a brief update that it seems to be playing out so far with more upside to come if history repeats. Many have claimed that altcoins are dead but I don’t think this is the case.
Solana Update
Solana is looking similar to Bitcoin where it’s now breaking above this falling wedge. Since we had a weekly close above 138, I think we have a lot more upside to come.
Solana vs. Bitcoin is holding above this key support level after a successful bullish retest. I see Solana having another major outperformance run against Bitcoin in the near future.
Dogecoin Update
Dogecoin finally reclaimed 0.20 and is set to go a lot higher. I think we reach 1.40 at a minimum this cycle.
Sui Update
Sui has reclaimed 2.85 and is having quite the rally at the moment. I think this is also set to go a lot higher.
Large Caps
For large caps, here’s the ones that stand out on a long term timeframe:
- XRP
- Sui
Pepe has likely bottomed as the weekly close got above 0.000009:
Model Portfolio Update
The model portfolio is now up roughly 17% as the market seems to have bottomed and is trending higher:
I pointed out which coins are still in a decent buy zone so be sure to review those if you are still looking to allocate. However I think the buy zone is closing shortly now that Bitcoin is over $100,000. Altcoins will soon catch up.
To see the detailed analysis on Mid Caps and Small Cap sector outperformers as well as the complete portfolio, sign up and become a pro today and gain an edge in the crypto market.
