Welcome to this week’s analysis on which altcoins are performing well and which ones are not. You can view the list here:
Bitcoin Update
I mentioned in the last newsletter “It appears that Bitcoin is continuing this breakout from the falling wedge and is soon going to make new all-time highs.” And here we are at all-time highs. This is where the fun part begins and we sit back and let the bulls do their thing. I’m expecting the next target for Bitcoin will be around 120-130k. Could there be some pullbacks along the way? Sure, but I don’t expect them to last long and they will likely be shallow.
I also would like to point out that we are reaching the threshold of a local top according to this indicator. However it can hover above this for weeks before it crosses down to confirm a local top. This is just for awareness so no action recommended and just something I’m monitoring.
Altcoin Pivot Indicator
I’ve been seeing the question a lot “When alt season?”. I covered this indicator I developed a few months back to try to more objectively answer this question. I have seen too many subjective interpretations of when alt season is supposed to start that it led me to create this Altcoin Pivot indicator. This looks at a combination of Bitcoin price, Bitcoin Dominance and OTHERS Dominance over a 2-week period. There are rare moments when Bitcoin price is declining along with Bitcoin Dominance by at least 1% while OTHERS Dominance is increasing by at least 1.4%. This signals a rotation out of Bitcoin and into smaller altcoins outside of the top 10. When this occurred, we had incredible rallies from altcoins. The last time this signal triggered was in mid-August 2023 and the altcoin market cap outside the top 10 did a 3x within 6 months. I have not seen this trigger recently but another one I’m monitoring.
Solana Update
Solana is doing well and I expect it to be making new all-time highs in the coming weeks.
Solana vs. Bitcoin is still holding above this key support level after a successful bullish retest. I see Solana having another major outperformance run against Bitcoin especially after making new all-time highs.
Dogecoin Update
Dogecoin is breaking out of this bull flag and is ready to go a lot higher.
Sui Update
Sui is still holding up pretty well despite this recent pullback. It seems to have been caused by a hack to Cetus Protocol, one of the DEX and liquidity providers on Sui.
Another chart we haven’t looked at in a while is the comparison of Sui vs. Solana from 2020-21 and I recently added Ethereum from 2015-17. Sui has decoupled from this pattern from the past few months but I expect it to catch up.
Large Caps
For large caps, here’s the ones that stand out on a long term timeframe:
- XRP
- Sui
We also have a new coin that joined the Large Cap list called Hyperliquid. This is a fairly new coin and just recently reached the 6-month price history that I look for in properly evaluating a coin. I would not buy at these current levels considering it’s making new all-time highs.
Pepe is consolidating and getting ready to go higher and make new all-time highs:
Here’s another way of looking at outperformance is how a coin has performed against Bitcoin since the low on March 11 to the high on May 23:
Model Portfolio Update
The model portfolio is now up roughly 14% as the market seems to have bottomed and is trending higher:
I pointed out which coins are still in a decent buy zone so be sure to review those if you are still looking to allocate. However I think the buy zone is closing shortly now that Bitcoin is over $100,000. Altcoins will soon catch up.
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