Welcome to this week’s analysis on which altcoins are performing well and which ones are not. You can view the list here:
Liquidity Pivot: The Setup for a Risk Asset Renaissance
Gold tops, Nasdaq breaks out, QT ends, and Bitcoin nears support — all pointing toward the same story: liquidity is about to turn back on, and rotation into risk is gaining force.
Gold Flashes a Double 8-Week Top — Just Like 2020
We’ve now seen a second consecutive 8-week gold top pattern — a red bar following last week’s blue bar. The last time this happened was in August 2020. Gold then fell roughly 20% and didn’t set a new all-time high until December 2023. Meanwhile, Bitcoin surged over 300% during that same stretch. This may mark another capital rotation point — money flowing out of defensive assets like gold and back into growth and crypto. In 2020, this pattern coincided with a Fed liquidity pivot and PMI expansion — conditions we are beginning to see again today.
Fed Announces QT Ending — QE on the Horizon
As covered by @BudhilVyas, the Fed announced during the Oct 29 FOMC that Quantitative Tightening (QT) will officially end on December 1. Historically, the end of QT precedes the start of Quantitative Easing (QE) — injecting liquidity back into the system. As QT winds down, liquidity-sensitive assets (crypto, small caps, tech) historically outperform sharply within months.
TGA Frozen During Shutdown — But Fuel Building
@LondonCryptoClub shares that the U.S. government shutdown has paused Treasury General Account (TGA) flows — keeping liquidity flatlined. Once the shutdown ends, billions in TGA releases could flood back into the market. This is a classic “spring coil” for risk-on assets — temporary liquidity pause before expansion.
Global M2 + PMI: The Two Engines of the Cycle
This recent post from @Sykodelic summarizes my macro view very well and why being bearish is not supported by the data. As I covered in newsletters in the past, there are two main factors that impact risk assets:
- Global M2 = liquidity flow (already rising since 2023)
- PMI = real economy momentum (still below 50 but improving)
Bitcoin has led since 2023 because liquidity returned, but PMI weakness capped altcoin performance.
Once both turn up together — the “full blast” moment — we’ll likely see explosive outperformance in altcoins and small caps.
1998 Parallels: Tech Acceleration Déjà Vu
@MarkUngewitter shared an interesting chart. The current S&P 500 pattern since 2024 closely tracks the re-based path from October 1998, during another period of technological disruption (dot-com wave).
Parallel themes:
- Central bank easing after tightening cycle
- Tech innovation boom
- Broad market rotation from value to growth
We may be in the early innings of another innovation-led melt-up — AI and digital assets this time instead of internet stocks.
NASDAQ Breakout: Two-Day Bollinger Band Surge
According to @SubuTrade, NASDAQ gapped above its upper Bollinger Band for two straight days — a rare event.
- Historically: +3.5% in one week, +10.6% in one month, +26% in one year.
Confirms risk-on momentum and market breadth consistent with early expansion stages.
Hindenburg Omen Triggered — Volatility Watch
@SubuTrade shared a Hindenburg Omen, which signals deteriorating breadth and divergence between new highs/lows, has triggered again. The S&P 500 has declined 83% of the time two months later from this signal. This aligns with my outlook that we have a strong rally into a year end and then likely a pullback early 2026. Even if this downturn occurs, these warnings often precede shakeouts before sustained rallies when macro liquidity is turning up. 1 year later and average return is over 6% and has been positive 80% of the time.
Seasonality and Historical Tailwinds
Further building upon seasonality, @RyanDetrick shared a chart showing that the next six months are historically the best-performing stretch of the year for the S&P 500. When the S&P is up >15% heading into November, the rest of the year averages another +4.7% gain. Statistical seasonality aligns perfectly with improving liquidity and PMI momentum — further strengthening the bullish case.
Bitcoin’s FOMC Pattern: Drop, Shakeout, and Pump
Alex Wacy has an interesting chart showing the past three FOMC meetings followed the same BTC pattern:
- Drops after FOMC meeting
- Bottoms few days after FOMC
- Pump to new all-time highs
Oct 29 FOMC could be another “shakeout before liftoff.”
Macro Summary
Gold’s double-top and Fed QT ending mark the likely turning point from defensive to expansionary liquidity.
Equities are showing momentum breakouts (NASDAQ, seasonality) reminiscent of 1998-style tech acceleration, yet Hindenburg Omen reminds us volatility may punctuate the path upward.
Crypto fits neatly into this macro setup:
- Bitcoin near range support
- Liquidity (Global M2) rising
- PMI (real economy) recovering
- Altcoins poised for next-phase outperformance once both engines fire together.
Bitcoin Update
Not much to update from last week as we’ve been stuck in the same range now for months. I am still expecting this to resolve to the upside either this month or next month to new all-time highs. The key is for price to get back above $116,000.
The short term holder MVRV Bollinger Band is showing potential support at $107,000:
Ethereum Update
Ethereum is still within the bull flag and could go down to $3,500 before going back up again. Once it breaks above $4,300 then I think new all-time highs are next.
Solana Update
Similar to Ethereum, this still is within the bull flag and expecting higher. It’s possible it goes down to $160 before going back up. Once it breaks above $200, we should see more movement to the upside:
Solana vs. Bitcoin decided to go lower so now it looks like it will go down to this next support level before going higher
Dogecoin Update
Dogecoin has regressed unfortunately and looks like it will either hold here or go lower to $0.134 before going higher. I think we still get a parabolic move in the next month or two despite this sluggish price action.
Sui Update
Similar to Dogecoin, there has been a setback with price and looks like it could go to $1.80 to $2.00 range before going back up.
Large Caps
For large caps, here’s the ones that stand out on a long term timeframe:
- XRP
- BNB
- Hyperliquid
- Ethereum
Pepe is also having a setback and is retesting a critical support level from April 2024 and April 2025. It needs to hold here otherwise it will have another huge drop.
Model Portfolio Update
Now is a good time to buy the dip again while you can. The portfolio is now showing 1% return for open positions:
The overall portfolio performance considering closed positions is roughly a -4% return:
To see the detailed analysis on Mid Caps and Small Cap sector outperformers as well as the complete portfolio, sign up and become a pro today and gain an edge in the crypto market.