Welcome to this week’s analysis on which altcoins are performing well and which ones are not. You can view the list here:
Product Update
This is a republication of my post from X to the newsletter in case anyone missed it: https://x.com/altcoin_screenr/status/1851683121676124270
I am happy to share a Bitcoin Seasonality index inspired by CryptoCon’s Halving Cycles Theory which you can read more about here https://x.com/CryptoCon_/status/1610320481814552580…
November 28 remains an important milestone in Bitcoin’s history in terms of major pivot points in each 1-year phase within a 4-year cycle. My Bitcoin Seasonality index references data from Nov 28 2010 through Nov 27 2021 and then applies it to this current cycle (Nov 28 2021 to Nov 27 2025). Let’s go through each phase.
Year 1 Bear Market
This corresponds to the Orange Year in the Halving Cycles theory. This is the phase to be risk off with Bitcoin and altcoins. We have a correlation of 0.71 between the current cycle (Nov 28 2021 to Nov 27 2022) and seasonality from previous cycles. A fairly strong correlation so this should be useful in the next expected bear market between Nov 28 2025 and Nov 27 2026.
Year 2 Accumulation
This corresponds to the Green Year in the Halving Cycles theory. This is the phase to be accumulating Bitcoin and other strong altcoins that are able to survive into the next cycle. We have a correlation of 0.67 between the current cycle (Nov 28 2022 to Nov 27 2023) and seasonality from previous cycles. A fairly strong correlation so this should be useful in the next expected accumulation phase between Nov 28 2026 and Nov 27 2027.
Year 3 Preparation
This corresponds to the Blue Year in the Halving Cycles theory. This is the phase to be continuing to hold and avoiding the shakeout and long sideways period that is characteristic of this phase. We have a correlation of 0.17 between the current cycle (Nov 28 2023 to Nov 27 2024) and seasonality from previous cycles. The correlation is weaker here and it is mainly due to the divergence that occurred between days 75 and 200. But otherwise it followed the trend and so far is following trend for the remainder of this year.
Year 4 New ATHs
This corresponds to the Red Year in the Halving Cycles theory. This is the phase when Bitcoin makes a new all-time high resulting in the largest gains and altcoin season. We have not yet made it to this phase in the current cycle (Nov 28 2024 to Nov 27 2025) but I can share the seasonality for it and it shows really good things to come. Hope you enjoyed these charts. I will continue to update them at least once a month to see how price is performing against seasonality.
Large Caps
On a long term timeframe, Solana is still the top performing large cap and is outperforming Bitcoin in the last 365 days by 104%.
For large caps, here’s the ones that stand out on a long term timeframe:
- BNB
- Dogecoin
BNB is outperforming BTC in the last 365 days by 18% and is down 20% from its high. Its Sharpe Ratio is 1.50 which means it has excellent risk-adjusted returns. Dogecoin is down 28% from its high and is outperforming BTC in the last 365 days by 13%. Its Sharpe Ratio is 0.89 which means it has decent risk-adjusted returns.
Here’s the ones that stand out on a short term timeframe:
- Dogecoin
It is outperforming Bitcoin and Solana in the last 30 days and in the last 90 days by 20-30%.
Dogecoin is showing impressive strength lately and continues to be a “buy the dip” opportunity.
Model Portfolio Update
Bitcoin is experiencing some volatility leading up to the US election. It is important in short term situations like this to not lose sight of the longer term trend of the next 12 months. Based on various sources including my Bitcoin Seasonality index, the trend for the next 12 months is showing a high probability of significant upside so any dips in price is a buy opportunity. This can test our patience and conviction but best thing to do if you are feeling uncomfortable is to zoom out and check the trend. Also check your portfolio against the Altcoin Screener data to ensure you have outperformers. It should be outperforming either Bitcoin or Solana in the short term or long term. You may also want to consider reducing risk by consolidating some smaller cap positions into Large Caps like Solana or Dogecoin if you are not able to stomach the volatility. Every person has different risk tolerance and it’s okay to adjust accordingly based on your individual needs.
Even with all this volatility, the overall portfolio is still up over 13% since mid September. We added to some positions to take advantage of this buy opportunity.
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Not financial advice. Please consult a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.