Welcome to this week’s analysis on which altcoins are performing well and which ones are not. You can view the list here:
Macro Update
It’s been another boring week in crypto meanwhile other assets like stocks and gold keep grinding higher.
- Short Term Outlook
- Can Stocks Keep Going Higher?
- Can Gold Keep Going Higher?
Can Stocks Keep Going Higher?
The S&P 500 has been on quite the rally this year and one might wonder: how can this keep going? With the recent tariff tantrum 2.0, there was an initial shock to markets but now it seems to be shaken off. This type of event has happened before where the VIX spikes when the S&P 500 is near all-time high and it has some interesting forward returns that have been positive 100% of the time 3 months, 6 months and 12 months later in the double digits:
Can Gold Keep Going Higher?
I looked at this topic in February 2025. I was off with my timing as I thought PMI was going higher sooner but instead we have just kept going sideways for longer. But interestingly enough, we are back to similar conditions where a gold top may be in but we need to wait for PMI to get above 50 for at least 2-3 months. This model then suggests gold is due for a pullback:
- Gold 8-week pattern: 7 weeks of upside and 1 week of downside (still need to wait for weekly close)
- Weekly RSI above 70
- PMI above 50 (pending)
Gold may be approaching exhaustion. Our model flags a parabolic setup — seven weeks of upside followed by one week of downside — alongside an overbought weekly RSI above 70. Historically, when the real economy regains strength (PMI > 50 for multiple months), investors tend to rotate out of gold and into cyclical and small-cap equities (including altcoins). If PMI momentum holds through year-end, this could mark the transition from gold leadership to equity rotation — especially toward risk-on segments of the market like small caps and altcoins. When you combine this with other leading indicators of PMI going higher, the setup looks good that a gold top could be coming soon.
There is also this chart comparing Bitcoin vs. Gold where Gold strength is highest and suggests Bitcoin could start outperforming from here:
Bitcoin Update
Bitcoin continues in this never-ending sideways pattern as market makers play games with traders. Let’s take a look at a few scenarios based on where marker makers could take the price next.
October 24 Options Expiry
We are now seeing max pain levels flipped from the downside to now the upside as sentiment has turned more bearish. This max pain level is showing Bitcoin could visit $114,000 by end of this week.
October 31 Options Expiry
Interestingly, for the end of month expiration, we are also seeing max pain at $114,000.
We also have other local bottom indicators being triggered like the 200-day and MVRV:
Plus we have short term holders hitting capitulation levels:
Ethereum Update
Similar to Bitcoin options expiry, let’s also look at Ethereum.
October 24 Options Expiry
Ethereum max pain is showing as $4,000:
October 31 Options Expiry
The max pain level for end of this month is $4,150. So similar to Bitcoin, sentiment is turning more bearish max pain is pointing to the upside.
There was also a rare comment from John Bollinger, the inventor of the Bollinger Bands indicator, that a bottom was potentially in for Ethereum and Solana:
John has also called major bottoms like this before:
Despite all the sideways price action, Ethereum is still within this bull flag pattern and I’m expecting higher:
Solana Update
Similar to Ethereum, this still is within the bull flag and expecting higher:
Solana vs. Bitcoin is below 20 week EMA but I think this still has potential to go higher with the rest of the bullish backdrop.
Dogecoin Update
Dogecoin is still lagging and it needs to get back above 0.22 for there to be any meaningful upside move. Remember with Dogecoin that most of the time it does nothing but it in very short periods of time, it has explosive moves to the upside. The key with this one and with most crypto is patience and it will come when you least expect it.
Sui Update
Similar to Dogecoin, I am a bit concerned that this is now below the long term trendline but hopeful for more upside as long as Bitcoin continues higher. I would like to see Sui get back above $3.50 to $4.
Large Caps
For large caps, here’s the ones that stand out on a long term timeframe:
- XRP
- Stellar
- BNB
- Ethereum
Pepe looks concerning but since it already has touched the March and April lows, I think more than likely the bottom is already in
Model Portfolio Update
Now is a good time to buy the dip again while you can. The portfolio is now showing 6% return for open positions:
The overall portfolio performance considering closed positions is roughly a -1% return:
To see the detailed analysis on Mid Caps and Small Cap sector outperformers as well as the complete portfolio, sign up and become a pro today and gain an edge in the crypto market.