Welcome to this week’s analysis on which altcoins are performing well and which ones are not. You can view the list here:
Gold Exhaustion and the Coming Rotation
Last week we highlighted that gold had rallied for 7 weeks straight, signaling potential exhaustion. This week’s close confirmed the 8-week top pattern—a setup that has historically preceded multi-week pullbacks for gold. When the real economy heats up (PMI > 50) and capital flows shift toward cyclical growth, gold tends to pause while equities and crypto take the baton. That dynamic appears to be starting now.
As I’ve covered for months, the wait for PMI to cross above 50 has been a painful one but I think is coming rather soon and has been very bullish for altcoins.
When Gold Stops, Bitcoin Runs
As shown by @sminston_with, Bitcoin bubbles often begin when gold momentum stalls. Gold’s pause acts as a release valve—capital rotates from “safety” to “speculation.” If this relationship holds, the recent gold plateau could be the spark for Bitcoin’s next leg higher.
Historical Context: 9-Week Gold Rallies → 2-3 Month Pullbacks
@SubuTrade notes that when gold rallies nine weeks in a row, it’s typically followed by a 2-3 month decline. We’re entering that window now, which could coincide with a strong Q4 rotation into risk assets—notably tech, small caps, and crypto.
Bitcoin Still Cheap vs Nasdaq
According to @BitcoinNewsCom, the correlation gap between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 implies BTC is trading at roughly a 30% discount relative to equities. If correlations re-converge—as they often do when liquidity expands—Bitcoin has meaningful catch-up potential in the weeks ahead.
November is Historically the Best Month for Stocks
@RyanDetrick reminds us that November has been the top-performing month for equities, with the S&P 500 posting gains over 70 % of the time since 1950. Combined with a cooling inflation backdrop and rising liquidity, this seasonality sets a supportive tone for risk assets broadly.
November is Also the Best Month for Bitcoin
Data from CoinGlass show November is also Bitcoin’s best performing month, averaging +45% returns historically. That seasonal tailwind, paired with gold’s exhaustion, builds a compelling case for a crypto-led Q4 melt up.
Macro Safety Check: 50-Week MA Holds
Per Ben Cowen’s framework, Bitcoin remains above its 50-week moving average, the key bull-market support band. Two consecutive weekly closes below would confirm a bear phase—but so far, the structure remains intact and bullish.
Upcoming Catalysts for November Rally
Many are probably wondering: what are the catalysts for a November rally? There are several in fact all clustered around late October and early November that if most play out bullish, it could contribute to a strong rally for the month:
| Date | Event | Potential Market Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 29 | FOMC Meeting | Rate cut of 0.25% expected (96% probability) → liquidity narrative likely unchanged (bullish for risk). Potential end to Quantitative Tightening (QT). |
| Oct 29-30 | Mega Cap Earnings | May confirm soft-landing narrative and capex strength |
| Oct 31 – Nov 1 | Trump & Xi Meeting | Any US-China trade thaw → global risk on |
| Nov 3 | ISM PMI Release | PMI > 50 = rotation to cyclicals → supports crypto |
Bitcoin Update
Bitcoin is still in its sideways range of $100,000 to $125,000. Many were expecting more downside to $95,000 but the max pain levels were telling a different story. I covered last week that both the October 24 and 31 options expiry had max pain at $114,000 so the upside was more likely than downside. Bitcoin managed to reach $114,000 just yesterday.
November Options Expiry
Looking ahead to Bitcoin options expiry for end of November, the max pain level is showing as $112,000. Since we are already close to this level, this might be a non-issue but nonetheless we can monitor.
October 31 Options Expiry
Interestingly, for the end of month expiration, we are also seeing max pain at $114,000.
Bitcoin is now holding above its short term holder cost basis of $113,000:
MVRV-Z Topping Cloud suggests next level could be $144,000:
According to Short-Term Holding MVRV +1 standard deviation, the next local top is around $150,000:
If Bitcoin can reclaim $116,000 then I think next stop is new all-time highs:
Ethereum Update
Last week we covered the options expiry for Ethereum and the max pain level for Oct 24 was $4,000 (which was reached yesterday) and for Oct 31 was $4,150 (which was also reached yesterday). Now let’s also take a look at November options expiry
November 25 Options Expiry
Ethereum max pain is showing as $4,200 which was just hit today and is very close by:
Ethereum is likely to keep following Bitcoin at this stage so it could go sideways for a bit longer but once it breaks above $4,300 then I think new all-time highs are next.
Solana Update
Similar to Ethereum, this still is within the bull flag and expecting higher. Once it breaks above $200, we should see more movement to the upside:
Solana vs. Bitcoin managed to close just above its 20 week EMA and is getting ready for an impulsive move to the upside.
Dogecoin Update
Not much to update here except Dogecoin made some slight progress but still waiting on it to get back above 0.22 for there to be any meaningful upside move. Remember with Dogecoin that most of the time it does nothing but it in very short periods of time, it has explosive moves to the upside. The key with this one and with most crypto is patience and it will come when you least expect it.
Sui Update
Similar to Dogecoin, there’s been some progress but need to see it get back above $3.50 to $4.
Large Caps
For large caps, here’s the ones that stand out on a long term timeframe:
- XRP
- Stellar
- BNB
- Hyperliquid
Pepe has made some progress in forming a bottom but need to see it reclaim the 0.0000092 level.
Model Portfolio Update
Now is a good time to buy the dip again while you can. The portfolio is now showing 15% return for open positions:
The overall portfolio performance considering closed positions is roughly a 5% return:
To see the detailed analysis on Mid Caps and Small Cap sector outperformers as well as the complete portfolio, sign up and become a pro today and gain an edge in the crypto market.