Welcome to this week’s analysis on which altcoins are performing well and which ones are not. You can view the list here:
Macro Update
There’s been a lot of speculation lately from other crypto analysts that a cycle top could be in but this couldn’t be further from the truth based on the stages of the business cycle. As I’ve covered in previous newsletters (refer to this one and next few after this), there’s two main factors that impact the performance of risk assets:
- Global M2
- PMI
Each of these has roughly four stages:
- Stage 1 = Global M2 is rising at a steady pace but PMI is below 50. Large Caps like S&P500 and Bitcoin outperform.
- Stage 2 = Global M2 is accelerating and PMI is above 50. Small Caps like Russell 2000 and altcoins outperform.
- Stage 3 = Global M2 is decreasing and PMI is above 50. Small Caps can still outperform briefly but this is usually a good time to become more risk off
- Stage 4 = Global M2 is decreasing fast and PMI is below 50. Risk assets in general are underperforming.
From late 2022 up until April 2025, Large Caps like S&P500 and Bitcoin have outperformed (Stage 1) because Global M2 has been rising but at a slower pace and PMI has been below 50. We are seeing signs of a transition to Stage 2 as we see outperformance from small caps in the Russell 2000 and recently Ethereum for the altcoin market. As PMI continues higher, we will start to see smaller cap coins outperform.
Here’s a chart showing Russell 2000 outperforming recently:
The breadth of the Russell 2000 has been very high:
This isn’t just random pumps with no fundamentals backing it, earnings for these companies are improving outside the mega caps:
Bitcoin Update
Bitcoin finished August in red which was contrary to my initial expectations. However when you look at this cycle so far since 2023, it seems that August has been a red month every time and has marked a local bottom. The weakness that many anticipate for September perhaps is already behind us…
Other local bottom indicators such as this one have also triggered:
https://twitter.com/FrankAFetter/status/1962524896761614430
Ethereum Update
Ethereum is going sideways near its all-time high. It’s possible that it touches it’s 20-weekly EMA around $4000 before resuming its uptrend. I am still expecting for an explosive move higher and once firmly above all-time highs, we will see the rest of the altcoin market catch up in due time.
ETH/BTC has marked a local bottom since April 2025 and we could see a pullback soon to allow other altcoins to shine:
Solana Update
Solana briefly broke through the $200 level and is sideways as I anticipated last week. If we get PMI above 50 this month and the rest of this year along with Fed interest rate cuts, $250 is a possibility this month.
My theory is still playing out with Solana vs. Bitcoin being above MA200 and as long as it holds here, I think we’re about to witness a surge higher similar to what we saw in the second half of 2024.
Dogecoin Update
Calm before the storm and I still think Dogecoin is getting ready for a parabolic move. Just a bit more chop first before higher.
Sui Update
Sui recently touched MA200 around 3.13 level so I’m anticipating this as a local bottom before going higher:
Large Caps
For large caps, here’s the ones that stand out on a long term timeframe:
- XRP
- Sui
- Stellar
- Hyperliquid
Not much to update here and just more sideways price action but still expecting higher for those who can wait.
Model Portfolio Update
The open positions is showing a positive return of roughly 22%:
The overall portfolio performance considering closed positions is roughly a 8% positive return:
We added to this dip in some positions. To see the detailed analysis on Mid Caps and Small Cap sector outperformers as well as the complete portfolio, sign up and become a pro today and gain an edge in the crypto market.