Welcome to this week’s analysis on which altcoins are performing well and which ones are not. You can view the list here:
Macro Update
I’m happy to share more leading indicators for this week:
- US Citi Earnings Revisions Index vs US PMI
- Gold Leading Bitcoin
I have more in the works so subscribe and stay tuned. Let the data be your guide.
US Citi Earnings Revisions Index vs US PMI
Shoutout to Jordi Visser for the inspiration to create this indicator. I’ve heard for the past couple months from Jordi how earnings revisions keep surprising to the upside and that this is a leading indicator for PMI. I wanted to find a chart that illustrates this and finally found one. I performed a correlation analysis for various timeframes and found the optimal lead time to be 2 months.
This aligns with the historical precedent that typically earnings revisions lead PMI by 1-3 months. Why do earnings revisions matter? They act as a forward signal for business confidence and growth and thus encourage more investment and risk taking. As you can see below, we had the US Citi Earnings Revisions Index going sideways with US PMI since 2022 and then since June 2025, earnings revisions accelerated to the upside and potentially formed a new uptrend. As I’ve covered in previous newsletters, when US PMI crosses above 50 and stays there for multiple months, this has coincided with a parabolic move in small caps and altcoins. This is yet another indicator suggesting this move is just around the corner possibly Q4 2025 or Q1 2026.
Gold Leading Bitcoin
Shoutout to InvestAnswers for the inspiration to create this indicator. He mentioned in his last few videos how Gold tends to lead Bitcoin by about 30 days. So did some of my own correlation analysis with various timeframes and here’s the results:
Historically, gold has led Bitcoin by as much as 85 days (2016–2020). But since 2022, that lag has compressed to just ~22 days. We interpret this as a sign of Bitcoin’s maturation: it no longer waits for gold’s signal, but increasingly trades in parallel as a primary macro asset. For today’s market, the 22-day lead is the operative signal. This also suggests Bitcoin should catch up with gold’s rally in due time.
Russell 2000 All-Time Highs vs Bitcoin
This is a very interesting chart and shows a pattern that when the Russell 2000 makes new all-time highs, then Bitcoin tends to put in a cycle top 12-13 months later. If history repeats then we are still very early:
OTHERS/BTC Market Cap vs US PMI – 2 Week Z-Scores
This is another way of looking at outperformance of altcoins vs. Bitcoin. This tracks the ratio of altcoins outside of the top 10 by market cap against Bitcoin’s market cap. As you can see from past instances where US PMI crossed above 50, it coincided with a surge in altcoin outperformance. This extended underperformance by altcoins all comes back to underperformance of US PMI. The tides are about to turn as many leading indicators of US PMI show it’s going higher.
Bitcoin Update
Bitcoin is experiencing some short term downside but I don’t think this will last very long. I think we’re potentially forming an inverse head & shoulders pattern which suggests more upside and we could finally see the next major leg higher. When you zoom out, this setup is still very bullish and once again just requires more patience.
I also discovered this short term indicator from MartyParty that tracks something called Liquidation Max Pain. This appears to be clusters of leveraged positions where liquidity is concentrated and with high probability that market makers will try to target liquidating those positions. This data suggests max pain is leaning toward taking out short positions so we could see a bounce higher. Not just for Bitcoin but many altcoins as well.
Ethereum Update
Ethereum continues to go sideways near its all-time high. It’s currently touching the 9-weekly EMA around $4200. It’s possible it drops lower to around $3800-4000 before resuming the uptrend. Otherwise I see a bounce from here to new all-time highs. I am still expecting for an explosive move higher and once firmly above all-time highs, we will see the rest of the altcoin market catch up in due time.
Solana Update
Solana was overdue for a cooldown and here we are. I mentioned last newsletter “We could see a pullback to $215-230 before continuing higher.” This too shall pass and I think presents another buying opportunity. Bearish case is it continues down to $200 but the end result I’m still expecting new all-time highs.
Solana vs. Bitcoin is having a short term pullback too. I’m still sticking with my theory that we’re about to witness a surge higher similar to what we saw in the second half of 2024.
Dogecoin Update
Dogecoin is having a pullback to the 9-weekly EMA. We either bounce here or bearish case is sideways between 0.20-0.30 before going higher. I think we’re about to see a repeat of Q4 2024 where we had a parabolic move. My targets are at least 0.74 and then potentially 1.13.
Sui Update
Sui fell below $3.50 so it looks like we continue sideways between $3-4 before going higher. This is still within the long term regression trendline so still bullish and another buying opportunity.
Large Caps
For large caps, here’s the ones that stand out on a long term timeframe:
- XRP
- Stellar
- Hyperliquid
Pepe going sideways with the rest of the market but still expecting higher once Bitcoin and Dogecoin start picking up again.
Model Portfolio Update
The open positions is showing a positive return of roughly 31%:
The overall portfolio performance considering closed positions is roughly a 13% positive return:
We added to this dip a coin that we think will benefit from the AI infrastructure boom. To see the detailed analysis on Mid Caps and Small Cap sector outperformers as well as the complete portfolio, sign up and become a pro today and gain an edge in the crypto market.